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Sudan impacts of climate change

WaterWorld version 2.87 was applied to understanding baseline water resources and impacts of climate change for Sudan at 1km resolution.  The simulation was applied for the tile only and does not take account of flows from upstream.

Baseline water situation:

The baseline water balance indicates high positive values in the mountains of Ethiopia grading to negative water balances in central Sudan.  This is particularly the case for wetland areas where actual evapotranspiration is much higher than local rainfall (since it is fed from flows from upstream).  This is also clear on a  major sub-basin level and reflects the distribution of rainfall and of actual evapotranspiration.  

Seasonality of water balance is not high but is greatest in the southern areas with the entire tile balance being negative in some months and positive in others, see below and as shown in this animation (the image may take some time to load).
Climate change scenario:
Applying the IPCC 4th assessment A2a scenario ensemble mean for 21 GCMs fro the 2050s yields the following changes

Under this scenario, coastal areas wet but inland dries with respect to water balance and this is clear also when averaged by major sub-basin.  This reflects a projected reduction in rainfall inland and increase near the coast and a warming-induced increase in evapotranspiration throughout the region.